Ukrainian gas prices surge above €51.6/MWh

Natural gas prices in the Ukrainian market rose sharply on Wednesday, June 18, exceeding €51.6/MWh or 31,550 UAH/tcm (including VAT), according to ExPro Natural Gas Quotations. This marks the highest price level since November 24, 2022.

According to ExPro, gas traded in Ukraine on Wednesday at 31,200–31,900 UAH/tcm (including VAT), depending on the resource, with many offers reaching 32,000 UAH/tcm and higher by the end of the day.

In converted terms, this equates to 26,000–26,583 UAH/tcm (excluding VAT), or $626–640/tcm, or €51.1–52.3/MWh.

These are commercial market prices and do not include volumes supplied under Public Service Obligations (PSO), such as gas delivered to households, district heating producers, and electricity generators. For these categories, Naftogaz Group companies supply gas at fixed prices in line with government regulations.

Price growth drivers

Gas prices in Ukraine have been increasing since early May 2025. Since the beginning of June alone, prices have climbed by 26% and have surged 1.6 times since May.

The pace of growth accelerated in recent days. While earlier prices on the domestic market were around 29,500 UAH/tcm (including VAT), by Wednesday, they exceeded 31,500 UAH/tcm.

The rally in Ukrainian gas prices is largely driven by rising prices at European hubs, where TTF exceeded €40/MWh on Wednesday for the first time since early April. European prices are reacting to geopolitical risks, particularly the Israel–Iran conflict, which may impact global LNG supply and demand.

Another key factor is persistently high demand in Ukraine. Industrial consumers are actively purchasing gas for the next month and for storage ahead of the 2024–25 heating season. State-owned companies, including GTS Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) and Naftogaz Trading, are also active buyers in the domestic market.

At the same time, supply has declined after the Cabinet of Ministers required Ukrnafta to sell its domestically produced gas to Naftogaz at a fixed price of 12,000 UAH/tcm for delivery to PSO-covered consumers.

Ukraine vs Europe

Given the supply shortage in the Ukrainian market, the spread between domestic and European prices continues to grow. On Wednesday, Ukrainian gas was trading roughly €12/MWh higher than Dutch TTF prices. This price difference will likely encourage private companies to import natural gas into Ukraine, as it may cover the cost of transporting gas from Europe to Ukraine.

According to ExPro, Naftogaz of Ukraine remains the primary gas importer in June. However, several private companies have already resumed importing small volumes from Europe this month.

As previously reported by ExPro, Ukraine and Poland have agreed to increase guaranteed cross-border import capacity to 12.4 mcm per day starting July 1.

Where to find natural gas market analytics?

Detailed analytics of the natural gas market in Ukraine, including production, imports, exports, UGS reserves, trading results, natural gas prices, key news, etc., are published in specialized publications ExPro Daily Gas, ExPro Gas&Oil Weekly, and ExPro Gas&Oil Monthly.

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