Natural gas prices in the Ukrainian market reached 23,000 UAH/tcm (including VAT) on May 26, 2025, according to ExPro Natural Gas Quotations. This marks the highest price level in more than two years, since February 2023.
According to ExPro’s data, gas traded on May 26 within a range of 22,800–23,200 UAH/tcm (including VAT), depending on the resource. This refers to 19,000–19,333 UAH/tcm (excluding VAT), or $458–466/tcm, or €38.15–38.83/MWh.
Natural gas prices in Ukraine
These market-based prices do not include natural gas deliveries supplied under Public Service Obligations (PSO), such as gas for households, district heating companies, or electricity producers. In line with the Cabinet of Ministers' resolutions, these categories of consumers receive gas at regulated fixed prices from Naftogaz Group companies.
Drivers of the price increase
The upward trend in Ukrainian gas prices began in early May, following a period of relative stability at the end of April. Since the beginning of May, domestic market prices have increased by around 19.5% — from 19,100–19,400 to 22,800–23,200 UAH/tcm.
The price growth is driven by market mechanisms, primarily the supply-demand balance. In May, the market saw a significant excess of demand over supply, pushing prices higher. Key contributing factors include:
- Withdrawal of Ukrnafta’s resource from the market: Since early April, the Cabinet of Ministers obligated Ukrnafta to sell its domestically produced gas to Naftogaz at a fixed price of 12,000 UAH/tcm (incl. VAT) for PSO supply. As a result, Ukrnafta halted gas sales on the open market, tightening supply. Ukrnaftoburinnya, operated by Ukrnafta, has also ceased market sales, further reducing available supply.
- Increased demand from final consumers: Amid rising prices and fears of shortages, final consumers have expanded their gas purchases, including stockpiling gas in storage for the coming months. This behavior has amplified demand, widening the supply-demand imbalance.
- Demand from state-owned companies: The behavior of major state companies — primarily Naftogaz Trading and the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine — remains a key market factor. These companies continue purchasing gas on the Ukrainian Energy Exchange, adding to overall demand and driving prices upward.
Ukrainian vs European gas prices
On April 29, for the first time in nearly a year, Ukrainian gas prices exceeded European spot gas prices. Throughout the past month, the market has seen fluctuations, with domestic prices sometimes above and sometimes below European levels.
As of May 26, Ukrainian gas (UA-VTP-CM, the May resource) was trading €2/MWh higher than the TTF Day-Ahead price in Europe (excluding taxes). The June resource, which dominates the market, was approximately €1.2/MWh or 700 UAH/tcm (incl. VAT) more expensive than European gas.
Natural gas prices in Ukraine and Europe
The spread between Ukrainian and European gas prices has widened in recent days, reaching its highest level since February 2024. The sharp rise in domestic prices, against a backdrop of relatively stable European hub prices, is the key reason for this divergence.
However, the current spread remains insufficient to fully resume commercial gas imports to Ukraine, as it does not yet cover the full margin (logistics costs and importer markup). Nevertheless, according to ExPro, the first private companies already resumed imports to Ukraine in May.
If the price gap between Ukrainian and European gas continues to widen, the probability of renewed private-sector gas imports to Ukraine will grow. In the context of a potential supply deficit ahead of the upcoming winter, such imports could support national efforts to prepare for the heating season by increasing the physical volume of gas supplied to Ukraine.
Where to find natural gas market analytics?
Detailed analytics of the natural gas market in Ukraine, including production, imports, exports, UGS reserves, trading results, natural gas prices, key news, etc., are published in specialized publications ExPro Daily Gas, ExPro Gas&Oil Weekly, and ExPro Gas&Oil Monthly.
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Михайло Свищо