Ukraine plans to partially resume gas exports

Ukraine intends to partially resume exports of domestically produced natural gas, which have been banned for 4.5 years, since early March 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This was reported by several ExPro market sources.

The possibility of resuming exports of domestically produced gas has been discussed in the market for several years. However, since mid-June, a series of meetings has been held between representatives of gas producers and the Ministry of Energy.

Why are exports being reopened?

One of the main arguments for resuming exports is the surplus that has emerged in the commercial segment of Ukraine’s gas market. Gas consumption by industrial consumers has almost halved since the beginning of the full-scale war. Meanwhile, production by private companies, which are the main gas suppliers to industry, has remained relatively stable despite Russian attacks. As reported in ExPro Gas&Oil Monthly, private companies produced more than 330 mcm of natural gas in May 2026.

In the years preceding the war, Ukraine actively sought to integrate into the European gas market. However, the Ukrainian market has deteriorated significantly since the full-scale invasion. Industrial gas consumption has plummeted, while a significant part of the market remains regulated, with fixed natural gas prices.

The Ukrainian market remains technically connected to the European market. However, weak demand, extensive regulation and the ban on exports of domestically produced gas have isolated Ukraine’s gas market from Europe, even in the absence of technical constraints.

Natural gas prices in Europe rose sharply after the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. At the same time, prices on the Ukrainian market remained stable, creating a significant gap between Ukrainian and European gas prices.

According to ExPro monitoring, the price difference between Europe’s TTF and the Ukrainian market exceeded €20/MWh in July, the widest gap since 2025. Gas in Ukraine is trading more than €20/MWh, or over 30%, below European prices. Under these conditions, Ukraine’s gas market has become isolated from the broader European market, making gas imports economically unviable.

“Resuming exports could help narrow the gap between gas prices in Ukraine and Europe and provide producers with additional revenue from exporting part of their gas. These funds could be used to restore facilities damaged by attacks and invest in production,” one market participant said.

In addition, gas stocks in Ukrainian UGS facilities exceeded 13 bcm in the second half of July. This was more than 40% higher than last year and the highest storage level in five years. Ukraine could accumulate more than 15 bcm of gas in UGS facilities by early November, which, according to government estimates, would be sufficient for the heating season.

Export mechanism

A draft resolution on the partial resumption of exports of domestically produced gas has been prepared. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine must adopt the resolution before exports can officially resume.

The draft mechanism reviewed by ExPro would allow gas producers to export up to 15% of their production. The Ministry of Energy would set the monthly export limit, which could not exceed 15% of actual production in the previous month. According to ExPro estimates, at current production levels, permitted exports could amount to 250 - 260 mcm per month.

Gas producers would sell gas for export through the Ukrainian Energy Exchange, where dedicated trading sessions are likely to be introduced. The price would be determined on a highest-bid basis. Naftogaz of Ukraine NJSC could purchase the gas and act as the actual exporter.

Only selected gas producers designated by the Ministry of Energy would be allowed to export natural gas. Exports would require licences from the Ministry of Economy, while GTS Operator of Ukraine would report monthly on the actual volumes exported by each producer. Companies would not be allowed to carry unused monthly export quotas over to subsequent months.

At the same time, given the current security risks, the government would be able to suspend gas exports immediately if they posed a threat to energy security or the country’s gas balance, including preparations for the heating season.

Where to find natural gas market analytics?

Detailed analytics of the natural gas market in Ukraine, including production, imports, exports, UGS reserves, trading results, natural gas prices, key news, etc., are published in specialized publications ExPro Daily Gas, ExPro Gas&Oil Weekly, and ExPro Gas&Oil Monthly.

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