It will take at least 10 years for Gazprom to restore the lost supply volumes

Russia's Gazprom has been severely affected by the full-scale war in Ukraine that Russia launched in 2022, according to a report commissioned by the company, the Financial Times reports.

Gazprom is unlikely to be able to recover the gas sales lost as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine for at least 10 years. By 2035, the company's exports to Europe will average 50-75 bcm, which is only a third of the pre-war level, the study predicts.

Although Gazprom hopes that the new pipeline to China will help compensate for the lost European exports, its capacity will be only 50 bcm per year, and prices in China are much lower than in Europe. In addition, no agreements have been reached on its construction.

“The main consequences of the sanctions for Gazprom and the energy sector are a reduction in exports, which will be restored to the level of 2020 not earlier than 2035,” the study says.