Export of electricity for the 3rd quarter of 2023 decreased 10 times compared to last year

The export of electricity in the 3rd quarter of 2023 decreased by more than 10 times, compared to the 3rd quarter of 2022. This is evidenced by ExPro calculations.

In general, during the third quarter of 2023, 111.7 thousand MWh were exported. During the same period, the volume of imports amounted to almost 212.5 thousand MWh (in the third quarter of 2022, imports were almost absent). During the 3rd quarter of 2022, exports exceeded 1.1 million MWh, the most was delivered in August 2022 - 440 thousand MWh.

In 2022, Ukraine could export electricity in 4 directions - Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova. But already in 2023, the available destinations have decreased, and export to Romania has become impossible. Also, deliveries to Poland have decreased, despite the launch of the updated line of the KhNPP-Rzeszów plant. In the third quarter of 2023, exports were made only to Slovakia and Poland.

Currently, the Ukrainian regulator and the transmission system operator are working on implementing joint auctions to distribute the capacity of the interstate crossing. In particular, on October 10, the Regulator plans to agree on distribution structures for the Ukraine – Hungary route (both ways). The following structure is planned for the project: for annual auctions – 0%, for monthly auctions – 0%, for daily auctions – 100%. Previously, the Regulator had already agreed on the structure for Slovakia and Romania. It should be noted that in July and August of this year, exports almost did not take place due to a deficit in the energy system. At the same time, already in September, electricity supplies abroad increased due to a favorable market situation.

According to ExPro Electricity Monthly, in August 2023 only 2 companies exported electricity - Ukrhydroenergo (to Moldova at a price of $53.5/MWh) and ERU Trading (to Slovakia at a price of $92/MWh) .

Trade details for September will be published in the next issue of ExPro Electricity Monthly.

In the third quarter of 2023, spot prices on neighboring European markets decreased several times compared to the same period last year.

In Ukraine, the "export PSO" continues to operate, according to which exporting companies pay 80% of their profit to the "Guaranteed Buyer" as a "service for ensuring the security of electricity supply." The exporter's notional income is calculated based on the difference between the prices of electricity in the country where the electricity is supplied and the prices of electricity in Ukraine. To calculate the profit, expenses (tariffs and crossing fees) are subtracted from the conditional income. This mechanism applies to those entities that export electricity to EU countries. According to "Guaranteed Buyer", for July-September 2022, exporters paid UAH 2.7 billion under this mechanism. However, in 2023, the volume of "export PSO" decreased sharply for two reasons - a reduction in the volume of exports and a reduction in the difference between Ukrainian and European prices. So far, "Guaranteed Buyer" has not yet published data for September 2023.

We will remind that on October 11, 2022, the export of electricity was abruptly stopped, due to the beginning of massive shelling of the energy infrastructure of Ukraine. It was restored only in April 2023.